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dc.contributor.authorLo Piano, Samuele
dc.contributor.authorLőrincz, Máté János
dc.contributor.authorPuy, Arnald
dc.contributor.authorPye, Steve
dc.contributor.authorSaltelli, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Stefán Thor
dc.contributor.authorvan der Sluijs, Jeroen P
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-20T13:37:16Z
dc.date.available2024-03-20T13:37:16Z
dc.date.created2023-12-04T19:32:28Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.issn0272-4332
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3123435
dc.description.abstractThis article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reflexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the field of energy research.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleUnpacking the modeling process for energy policy makingen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2023 The Author(s)en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/risa.14248
dc.identifier.cristin2208808
dc.source.journalRisk Analysisen_US
dc.identifier.citationRisk Analysis. 2023en_US


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