A general framework to obtain seamless seasonal–directional extreme individual wave heights—Showcase Ekofisk

Abstract

Extreme wave climate provides the basis for safe design of offshore structures and is crucial for planning and executing offshore operations. Covariate modeling of extremes significantly enriches and improves estimates of return levels and exceedance probabilities of extreme sea states. Based on novel observational and hindcast datasets, we formulate a seasonal–directional extreme value model for individual wave heights and present exceedance probabilities for the Ekofisk oil and gas field, a location in the Central North Sea. Subsequently, we elucidate how to downscale estimates of monthly exceedance probabilities and return levels to daily maxima and illustrate how to retrieve consistent results on seamless directional sectors and different seasons, or for the entire covariate space. We conclude with a versatile statistical framework to obtain seasonal–directional extreme waves and reveal a strong seasonal and directional dependence of extreme individual waves at Ekofisk with the highest waves coming from northwest during winter. Moreover, we apply our approach to normalized wave heights and show noticeable variability depending on season and direction with implications for offshore design.