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dc.contributor.authorGrendal, Ola Nestvold
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-24T12:19:01Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-24
dc.date.submitted2020-06-23T22:00:27Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1956/22931
dc.descriptionPostponed access: the file will be accessible after 2021-06-02en_US
dc.description.abstractIn this thesis I investigate the link between climate variability and violent conflict. By applying an unconventional way of measuring conflict with regards to death toll based in contemporary climate-conflict literature, I investigate whether there exists a relationship between variations in climate measures and the occurrence of violent conflict. Building on contemporary theoretical assumptions where intermediate variables are seen as central, I build a theoretical argument where five categories of contextual variables are presented. These are cultural, economic, institutional, geographical and demographic. From these categories, I draw variables where I expect climate variability to have an intensifying effect on violent conflict. The hypotheses created from these theoretical categories are tested within a logistic multilevel regression-framework, and later by a mediation analysis. I utilize a detailed and nuanced sort of data from four different sources to test my theoretical claims. The datasets contain data on 49 African and Latin-American countries (N=15678), allowing for a broad analytical scope. Based on the analysis performed in this thesis, little support is provided for the supposed relationship. Using multiple alternative variables to measure variability in climate the results stay more or less the same. Few consistent links are found. However, one cannot yet confidently discard the existence of a relationship; It might be the case that statistical analyses struggle to identify the complex mechanisms and processes at play. Both geographic and temporal complexity is present. More detailed qualitative analyses should be performed in order to more concisely create specific theories. By exploring cases where the relationship is thought to be present one can perform in-debt analyses of the mechanisms and processes at play.en_US
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherThe University of Bergen
dc.rightsCopyright the Author. All rights reserved
dc.subjectQuantitative
dc.subjectAfrica
dc.subjectConflict
dc.subjectClimate
dc.subjectLow-Level
dc.subjectVariability
dc.subjectLatin America
dc.subjectRegression
dc.subjectCross-Regional
dc.subjectLogistic
dc.subjectMultilevel
dc.titleClimate and Conflict: A logistic multilevel analysis of the relationship between climate variability and violent conflict
dc.typeMaster thesisen_US
dc.date.updated2020-06-23T22:00:27Z
dc.rights.holderCopyright the Author. All rights reserveden_US
dc.description.degreeMasteroppgave
dc.description.localcodeSAMPOL350
dc.description.localcodeMASV-SAPO
dc.subject.nus731114
fs.subjectcodeSAMPOL350
fs.unitcode15-13-0
dc.date.embargoenddate2021-06-02


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