Labour market mobility among senior workers in Norway

Abstract

As many developed countries, Norway has a growing elderly population and need to administer some policy change to cover the cost of the increasing number of pension recipients. One of the solutions to this problem is to give workers incentive to stay in the workforce longer. This thesis analyse the senior workers labour market mobility by studying the probability of leaving the workforce and the probability for senior workers to conduct a job change. Understanding job-to-nonemployment and job-to-job mobility give valuable information on the development of the labour market for senior workers, and with this information it is possible to better facilitate policy incentives. Nonemployment and job-to-job mobility are both represented as binary variables in this thesis, and I have chosen to use the logit model to calculate the probabilities. The results from the probability of leaving the workforce conforms to the theory and show that lower educated individuals have a higher probability of leaving early. The probability of job change does also decline with age, but the age coefficients have a curvilinear shape. The probability of job change increase before declining, and this is more difficult to explain.