Historical and future runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin from CMIP6 models constrained by a weighting strategy

Abstract

Based on the ERA5-Land datasets from 1981–2020, a decadal oscillation has been found in the variation of summer runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB). The oscillation suggests that the MLYRB will experience increased runoff in the next few decades after 2020, which saw a record high runoff in the MLYRB. The decadal changes in summer runoff over the MLYRB under various climate change scenarios are then analyzed with direct runoff outputs from 28 general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Given that the equal-weighted multi-model ensemble mean could not well represent the historical runoff changes in the MLYRB, in this paper we introduce a model weighting scheme that considers both the model skill and independence. It turns out that this scheme well constrains the models to represent the observed decadal changes of summer runoff. The weighted mean projections suggest that the summer runoff in the MLYRB during 2015–2100 under all warming scenarios will be higher than the present day; and 2021–2040 is likely to be a period with significantly increased summer runoff. Results of the present study have great implications for flood control and effective water resources management over the MLYRB in the future, and the weighting approach used in this paper can be applied to a wide range of projections at both regional and global scales.