Solar Cycle and Solar Wind Dependence of the Occurrence of Large dB/dt Events at High Latitudes

Abstract

We investigate sharp changes in magnetic field that can produce Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage pipelines and power grids. We use one-minute cadence SuperMAG observations to find the occurrence distribution of magnetic field “spikes.” Recent studies have determined recurrence statistics for extreme events and charted the local time distribution of spikes; however, their relation to solar activity and conditions in the solar wind is poorly understood. We study spike occurrence during solar cycles 23 and 24, roughly 1995 to 2020. We find three local time hotspots in occurrence: the pre-midnight region associated with substorm onsets, the dawn sector often associated with omega band activity, and the pre-noon sector associated with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) occurring at the magnetopause. Magnetic field perturbations are mainly North-South for substorms and KHI, and East-West for omega bands. Substorm spikes occur at all phases of the solar cycle, but maximize in the declining phase. Omega-band and KHI spikes are confined to solar maximum and the declining phase. Substorm spikes occur during moderate solar wind driving, omega band spikes during strong driving, and KHI spikes during quiet conditions but with high solar wind speed. We show that the shapes of these distributions do not depend on the magnitude of the spikes, so it appears that our results can be extrapolated to extreme events.